2022-23 Winter Heating Costs – What to Expect

This winter, customers will see significantly higher heating bills than in previous years, based on the rising cost of natural gas. National Fuel estimates that based on the current market prices, the average residential customer In New York will pay $1,023 to heat their home from November 2022 through March 2023. These expected increases will land around 50% above costs seen during last year’s milder-than-normal winter. (At this time in 2021, National Fuel had predicted average winter bills to total $714 and the actual average was $684.)

While predicting energy costs and winter weather are not always a sure thing, National Fuel does know the summer purchase price it paid for natural gas currently being injected into underground storage fields is nearly 50% higher than last summer’s storage gas prices. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) natural gas pricing for deliveries this upcoming winter is substantially higher as well, recently topping $9 per MMBtu (one million British thermal units), an increase from last winter when pricing averaged under $6 per MMBtu. (In comparison, just two years ago, gas pricing was at $3 per MMBtu.)

However, are these estimates absolute for every customer in every National Fuel service region? No. Monthly bills will ultimately be determined by a variety of variables, including, but not limited to:

  • What state you live in
  • What energy provider you use
  • The square footage of your home
  • The type of heating system you use
  • How efficient your heating system is
  • Your temperature preferences
  • If your house has been insulated and air sealed
  • The outside temperatures during the 2022-23 winter months for where you live